A Week in the Market: Comments of Politics and Some Statistics (27 June – 1 July) – R Blog

This week, the head of the European Central bank Christine Lagarde will deliver comments four times. Most probably, the market will find what to react to, especially if the comments touch upon the interest rate and credit and monetary conditions. The EUR remains depressed for now but might grow if Lagarde is assuring enough.

Great Britain will issue statistics of the GDP for Q1. According to preliminary information, the British economy expanded for by 0.8% q/qat the beginning of the year and by 8.7% y/y. If the revised results turn out the same as the prelim ones, the GBP will have a chance to grow.

Normally, the JPY does not react to statistics, but there are exceptions. Japan is going to present the Tankan sentiment index of large investors or Q2. The stronger the report, the more confidence it will give to the Japanese economy. This is, in turn, good for the JPY.

China is preparing the Caixin PMI in production for June and the general PMI. The latest statistics signalled a slowdown of growth because the index had dropped below the psychologically important level of 50 points. If the decline deepens, capital markets will receive a negative signal, and maket players will be running away from risks.

This week, Australia is publishing just one important indicator – retail sales in May. The forecast suggests a possible decline, which would be negative in the times of increasing interest rate and generally restrained view of economic perspectives. The AUD might fall.