The day we’ve all been waiting for has finally arrived as Jerome Powell prepares for his keynote speech at Jackson Hole.
I have no doubt Powell will have chosen his words very carefully today, all too aware of the consequences of even the smallest deviation in his intended message. It’s a little ridiculous that markets put so much weight on such things but that is the situation we are in and I expect the Fed Chair will be very clear in the message he wants to send.
The difficulty for Powell stems from the fact that there’s the message investors desperately want to hear and the one they’ve repeatedly ignored since the July Fed meeting.
The “dovish pivot” played nicely into the hands of the perma-bulls that have waited impatiently for the stock market to recover this year. Despite policymakers’ best efforts, attempts to correct this narrative have been brushed aside and the view today is that Powell may try to address this in a more forceful and convincing way.
If he fails or gives the slightest impression that there is any substance to the dovish pivot narrative, we could see yields slip and stock markets end the week on a high. That could come intentionally, or otherwise, but investors will be clinging to his every word for even the slightest hint. Especially in light of the recent inflation reading. No pressure.
Plenty of US economic data ahead of Powell’s speech
While I’m sure that would be enough excitement for one day, there’s plenty of economic data due from the US later that will have a big role to play as well. Ahead of the speech, we’ll get income, spending and core PCE price index data, the latter of which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. The timing couldn’t be better. The UoM consumer sentiment survey is also released around the time his speech starts which will also be interesting, given that it’s languishing near its lowest level in decades even as actual spending remains strong.
Sterling slips after eye-watering energy price cap rise and forecasts
The pound fell this morning after it was confirmed by Ofgem that the energy price cap will rise by 80% in October, taking the average annual household energy bill to £3,549. It’s the moment many have feared for months and to make matters worse, the eye-watering hike was accompanied by a warning that prices are continuing to rise ahead of the next revision in January, with Cornwall Insight suggesting the cap could hit £6,616.37 next year.
While looking that far ahead leaves enormous room for error if this year is anything to go by, that is devastating for so many and will require immense government support. It will also make the job of the Bank of England horrifically hard, with its previous projection of inflation this year peaking at 13.3% now looking unrealistically optimistic. Five quarters of contraction may also start to look like the optimistic scenario at this rate.
Japanese inflation rises but BoJ to remain calm
Contrast that with inflation in Japan, where the Tokyo CPI rose to 2.9% y/y in August and only 1.4% ex-fresh food and energy. It’s no surprise the central bank is pushing back against the need to tighten monetary policy at this point in time. Of course, it’s easy to say that when the pressure on the currency and bond yields have eased to the extent they have over the last six weeks. That could well change if Powell strikes a hawkish tone today and triggers another jump in yields and the dollar.
Crypto hoping for dovish Powell
Everything I write about at the minute seems to require the need to reference back to Jackson Hole and Fed Chair Powell and bitcoin is no different. Last Friday’s sell-off has left bitcoin vulnerable ahead of today’s speech and crypto bulls will be hoping for anything dovish that could help it get back on its feet. The opposite could see $20,000 come under pressure.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/
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Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary.
His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News.
Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
