Steady post-inflation shock - MarketPulseMarketPulse


Investors remain in an upbeat mood going into tomorrow’s US inflation report, buoyed still by the December jobs report and the prospect of the economy being less squeezed by interest rates.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell may have refrained from commenting on the monetary policy outlook on Tuesday but the chances are he wouldn’t have said anything investors would have liked even if he had addressed it. It’s been clear from other commentaries that policymakers are sticking to the hawkish script.

Another good inflation number tomorrow could change that as the trend has already been very encouraging and the jobs data that appeared to throw a spanner in the works last month has since been revised out. From an investor perspective, it would take something pretty terrible tomorrow – the inverse of what we were treated to on Friday – to really rock the boat.

Building confidence

Bitcoin is missing out on today’s risk rally but traders will be relieved by how the last couple of days have gone. It’s back above $17,000 and suddenly the mid-December peak doesn’t look too far away. Friendly newsflow and a solid CPI number tomorrow could help it gain some momentum from here but I remain sceptical about how much upside can be achieved in an otherwise hostile environment.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar:

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary.

His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News.

Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam


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