AUD/USD has posted slight losses today, trading at 0.6726. This follows a disastrous Tuesday, when the Aussie fell 0.92%. Earlier, AUD/USD fell as low as 0.6999, its lowest level since July 14th.
Australian GDP within expectations
Australia’s GDP for Q2, released earlier today, has helped stabilize a wobbly Australian dollar. GDP posted a 0.9% gain, just shy of the estimate of 1.0% and above the 0.8% in Q4. Consumer spending remains robust, and the economy was supported by strong export numbers, as commodity prices remain high.
The Australian dollar’s woes seem more a case of US dollar strength than AUD weakness. We are seeing global interest rate continue to head higher, which has dampened the appetite for risk-related assets, such as the Australian currency. An aggressive Federal Reserve, supported by solid US numbers, has boosted the greenback. Tuesday’s US ISM Services PMI rose to 56.9 in August, up from 56.7 in July and higher than the 55.1 estimate. The report pointed to an increase in business activity and strong consumer demand, despite high inflation and rising interest rates.
The RBA delivered a fourth straight hike of 0.50% on Tuesday, but the sizeable increase failed to boost the Australian dollar, as the move had been anticipated by the markets. The Australian dollar has not been responsive to recent RBA moves, losing ground yesterday and after the July meeting. The cash rate is now at 2.35%, which is expected to hit 3% by the end of the year, with further hikes expected in 2023. Today’s move brings rates close to the neutral level of around 2.5%, which means that the RBA is likely to deliver one more 50bp hike and then scale back to 25bp increases, contingent on inflation and the strength of the labour market.
.
AUD/USD Technical
- 0.6737 is a weak resistance line. Above, there is resistance at 0.6846
- There is support at 0.6661 and 0.6552
This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities. His work has been published in several major online financial publications including Investing.com, Seeking Alpha and FXStreet. Based in Israel, Kenny has been a MarketPulse contributor since 2012.