A still uncertain outlook for oil demand
Oil prices suffered alongside risk assets on Tuesday, albeit to a much lesser extent, with the threat to the US economy of much higher interest rates a downside risk. Of course, it’s yet another risk that I’m sure OPEC+ will be keen to stress it would adapt to in its desperation to ease market volatility and keep prices high.
The oil price is a little higher after the IEA monthly report which claimed oil use for power generation will hit 700,000 barrels per day, while at the same time indicating that demand growth will halt in the fourth quarter before rising by 2.1 million barrels per day next year. It, therefore, lowered its forecast for world oil demand growth this year by 110,000 BPD to two million while warning of downside risks including the faltering Chinese economy and a slowdown in OECD countries. Ultimately, the outlook is heavily subject to revisions given the still rapidly evolving environment.
A nervy week ahead
It won’t come as a surprise to anyone that gold went into freefall following the US inflation report as it became clear that the Fed is in no position yet to ease its foot off the brake. Suddenly the yellow metal is looking down rather than up, with $1,730 remaining strong resistance to the upside but $1,680 now very vulnerable. It’s going to be a nervy week for gold bulls.
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Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary.
His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News.
Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.
