Q4 2022 Cross Asset Forecasts


Fundamental Forecasts:

USD Q4 2022 Fundamental Forecast: USD Harnessed Fundamental Winds, Now a Threat

There was no stopping the US Dollar through the third quarter as the world’s most liquid currency drew on the benefits of a striking yield advantage on an aggressive Federal Reserve rate hike regime.

Equities Q4 2022 Fundamental Forecast: S&P 500 Braces as Fed Engineers an Economic Slowdown

After a wild ride in the third quarter, the S&P 500 is bracing for more volatility in the fourth quarter as the Federal Reserve is being forced to engineer an economic slowdown to bring down inflation.

Gold Q4 2022 Fundamental Forecast: The Storm May Get Worse Before It Gets Better

Gold prices suffered heavy losses during the third quarter, pressured by rising real yields and a strong U.S. dollar. The fourth quarter may also be challenging for the precious metal.

Euro Q4 2022 Fundamental Forecast: Euro Faces a Storm Into Year-End

Coming into 3Q’22, the Euro was facing a litany of issues that prevented any sort of significant rebound: slowing economic growth; the Russian invasion of Ukraine; energy inventories; and concerns around a potential fragmentation of European bond markets..

GBP Q4 2022 Fundamental Forecast: A Whole Heap of Problems for the New Prime Minister

The cost of covid, soaring energy prices, rampant inflation, insipid growth and the ongoing Brexit rancour are just some of the problems the new PM must solve quickly.

AUD Q4 2022 Fundamental Forecast: Australian Dollar Outlook Sees the Fed Running Harder and Faster than the RBA

The Australian Dollar appears vulnerable going into the end of the year with the rate paths of the RBA and the Federal Reserve set to diverge. Will monetary policy drive AUD/USD?

Oil Q4 2022 Fundamental Forecast: WTI May Fall as Growth Slows, Russia and Ukraine Conflict Evolves

Crude oil prices may fall as slowing global growth erodes demand while the evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine offers hope for easing geopolitical supply risks.

JPY Q4 2022 Fundamental Forecast: Japanese Yen Susceptible to Bank of Japan (BoJ) Policy

The Japanese Yen may continue to underperform against its US counterpart as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) votes unanimously to maintain its easing program.

Bitcoin Q4 2022 Fundamental Forecast: It’s Still One Trade

All things considered, 3Q’22 wasn’t that bad for cryptocurrency markets and Bitcoin prices in particular, which fell by around -4.5% over the past three months.

Technical Forecasts:

USD Q4 2022 Technical Forecast: Still Bullish on the US Dollar

USD has both the rate advantage while also being the safe-haven, positioning the Greenback for continued gains into the end of the year.

Euro Q4 2022 Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Bearish Continuation

Not too long ago ‘parity’ appeared unlikely. Now, it represents a rather ambitious level. Key levels to consider for a bearish continuation

Equities Q4 2022 Technical Forecast: Advanced, but Not Quite There

US equities are approaching year-to-date lows and there are no signs of a reversal.

Gold Q4 2022 Technical Forecast: Outlook in Limbo, Watch Dollar and Stocks

The gold (XAU/USD) outlook for the coming quarter is a tricky one. At the time of this writing, it is sitting on a major level of support around the 1670 line.

JPY Q4 2022 Technical Forecast: Yen at the Mercy of BoJ and FX Intervention as Fed Remains Hawkish

Not much has changed from Q3 with the Japanese Yen extending its weakness against the U.S. dollar as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues its dovish stance on monetary policy to stimulate economic growth.

AUD Q4 2022 Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Falling Wedge and Inverse H&S in Focus

Despite a strong start in July, the Australian Dollar fell against the US Dollar in August and September, extending the downward trend established in April when prices hit the highest level since June 2021 before selling off.

Bitcoin Q4 2022 Technical Forecast: Lower Before Higher

The outlook for BTC/USD this coming quarter to put simply is, lower before higher. As it currently stands there is the dollar and everything else, meaning that as the dollar propels higher just about everything else suffers, except volatility.

GBP Q4 2022 Technical Forecast: Still Bearish GBP

Downside pressure remains, parity to the US Dollar still in play.

Oil Q4 2022 Technical Forecast: WTI Breakdown Underway

Crude oil prices plunged a staggering 25% in the third quarter as WTI fell towards its yearly lows in late September.

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