Risk aversion remains strong - MarketPulseMarketPulse


European stocks are off to a positive start on Monday, following a relatively muted day in Asia amid bank holiday closures in China, Hong Kong and South Korea.

UK growth continues to struggle

The UK economy grew slightly less than expected in July, with growth supported by consumer-facing services on the back of the Women’s EUROs and the Commonwealth Games. With the additional bank holiday this month, the economy could be facing a small technical recession, albeit one that won’t be nearly as bad as was expected prior to the cap on energy bills. There’s a lot more data to come this week which should show consumer spending slipping as inflation remains above 10% and the labour market still strong.

Yen slips once more

The Japanese yen is slipping again at the start of the week despite continuous warnings from officials about the movements in the currency. While they continue to stress the urgency with which they view the unjustified moves, they’ve so far shown themselves to be all talk and no action so the warnings are increasingly falling on deaf ears.

US inflation data eyed on Tuesday

There’ll be a heavy focus on the US this week as traders await CPI data on Tuesday. The release comes following another flurry of hawkish Fed speak. It seems policymakers were keen to reinforce their hawkish position ahead of the blackout period – which we’re now in – potentially with an eye on that data point. They’ll have no opportunity to react to the release ahead of the meeting and there was perhaps a feeling that a softer reading could see market expectations slip which they clearly want to avoid. It will be interesting to see how traders now respond as we’ve seen how keen they are to hop aboard the “dovish pivot” train before.

Bitcoin enjoying a strong rebound

The recovery in bitcoin since the end of last week has been very strong, with the rally topping 4% again today. Whether it’s the expectation of a dovish shift, a weaker dollar or just an improvement in broader risk appetite, something is giving cryptos a big boost and that’s helped bitcoin hit its highest level since it went into freefall on 19 August. Things may be looking up in the short term, although once more, that may well depend on the inflation data.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Based in London, Craig Erlam joined OANDA in 2015 as a market analyst. With many years of experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he focuses on both fundamental and technical analysis while producing macroeconomic commentary.

His views have been published in the Financial Times, Reuters, The Telegraph and the International Business Times, and he also appears as a regular guest commentator on the BBC, Bloomberg TV, FOX Business and SKY News.

Craig holds a full membership to the Society of Technical Analysts and is recognised as a Certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts.

Craig Erlam

Craig Erlam


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