‘Sizzling’ US Jobs Data (+528k) Make Case for Bigger Fed Rate Increases (Real Avg Hourly Earnings Growth Sinks To -3.8173 And US Treasury Yield Curve Inverts Further To -37.6, Most Inverted Since 2000) – Confounded Interest – Anthony B. Sanders

The media is thrilled with today’s jobs report showing a sizzling 528k jobs added to the US economy. And with that, the media is cheering that recession fears are shrinking.

But hold on a second.

First, while 528k jobs were added in July (great news!), REAL average hourly earnings growth YoY fell to -3.8173. Why? Because the rate of inflation is greater than nominal average hourly earnings YoY of 5.2%. That is BAD.

This charts shows that inflation-adjusted (or real) wage growth is the worst in recorded history.

And the “sizzling” jobs report isn’t feeling any love in the bond market where the US Treasury yield curve (10Y-2Y) deepened its inversion to -37.593 basis points, a drop of -1.331 BPS. Note that the 10Y-2Y curve falls below 0% just prior to every recession.

Labor force participation actually fell to 62.1% from 62.2% in June.

I am assuming that The Fed will misread the jobs report and argue for LESS COWBELL.