Stocks drop ahead of NFP, the new ADP, China weakens, Oh Snap, bitcoin fights to hold $20k

US stocks are weakening ahead of a key labor market report that should pave the way for further aggressive rate hikes by the Fed.

US Data

So it begins. The labor market is cooling as private payrolls clearly showed a more conservative pace of hiring. ​ ADP’s new methodology was in place and showed job growth slowed for a second-consecutive month as companies added the fewest jobs since early 2021. ​ ​ After taking a month, the ADP report showed the change in US private employment rose by 132,000, which was down from the prior month when the economy created nearly 270,000 jobs.

Expectations are still mostly optimistic for Friday’s nonfarm payroll report, which is expected to see 300,000 jobs created in August. ​ The consensus range for the headline NFP result is between 75,000 and 452,000 jobs. ​ The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 3.5%, which will be closely watched by the Fed as they are expecting it to start to rise significantly over the coming months.

A slower pace of hiring still gives the Fed the greenlight for more aggressive rate hikes over the next couple of FOMC meetings. ​


China’s PMI data confirms the economy is weakening quickly as the impact from COVID lockdowns, intense heat waves, a troubling property crisis, and the global energy crisis lingers. The official manufacturing purchasing manager’s index increased from 49.0 to 49.4, a slight beat of the 49.2 consensus estimate. ​ Factory activity remains in contraction territory and might struggle to recapture the 50-point mark next month.

The PBOC will need to do more to revive growth, but they will resist aggressive easing. ​ They might also allow the yuan to depreciate a little more.


Snap shares are rising after announcing a major restructuring. ​ Snap Inc will cut about 20% of its workforce and discontinue many investments as they try to save $500 million annually. ​ Snap’s struggles might become a similar story that gets told across corporate America.


Bitcoin is hovering around the $20,000 level despite global stock market weakness. ​ The next major move for bitcoin will likely come after the nonfarm payroll report, which could show signs of cooling and prompt a short-term relief rally. ​

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya is a senior market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute intermarket analysis, coverage of geopolitical events, central bank policies and market reaction to corporate news. His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Most recently he worked with, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news.

Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business and Sky TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most renowned global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Breitbart, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal.

Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.

Ed Moya

Ed Moya

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By Ed Moya