Breaking Down Block (SQ) Stock Before Q3 Earnings


Wheaton Precious Metals stock (NYSE:WPM) has gained about 15% over the last month (around 21 trading days) considerably outperforming the broader markets. There are a couple of factors driving the recent gains. Firstly, gold prices rose by close to 4% over the past month to about $1,785 per ounce helping the revenue outlook for Wheaton. The sentiment appears to have improved for precious metals in general, following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s comments that it could ease the pace of rate hikes with inflation showing some signs of cooling. While the four most recent interest rate hikes were 75 basis points each, the market anticipated that this will moderate to 50 basis points during the next Fed meeting on December 14. Separately, Wheaton’s Q3 2022 results, which were published in early November, were also largely in line with expectations, and this has also helped the stock.

However, now that WPM stock has seen a gain of about 15% over the last month, will it continue its upward trajectory in the near term, or is a decline imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a roughly 55% chance of a rise in Wheaton stock the next month. There were 262 instances in the last 10 years when Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) stock saw a trailing 21-day rise of 15% or more.  145 of those instances resulted in WPM stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (21 trading days). This historical pattern reflects 145 out of 262, or about a 55% chance of a rise in Wheaton Precious Metals stock over the next month. See our analysis on Wheaton Stock Chance of A Rise for more details.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of Rise’ using the last ten years data

  • After moving 1% or more over five days, the stock rose in the next five days on 52% of the occasions.
  • After moving 3.2% or more over ten days, the stock rose in the next ten days on 50% of the occasions
  • After moving 15% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 55% of the occasions.

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Returns Dec 2022
MTD [1]
YTD [1]
Total [2]
 WPM Return 1% -8% 104%
 S&P 500 Return -4% -17% 76%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio -4% -21% 214%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 12/8/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


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By Trefis